March 7, 2021


News for Agilists

If Estimating Work Needs To Be Reliable, Why Use Story Points Instead of Time? | by Seamus Connolly | Serious Scrum | Oct, 2020

The time required to complete work will eventually be factored into the average velocity. We can use an example to illustrate this. Whether we are using hours or days for ideal time does not matter, since the instinct to think of days in terms of hours per day is compelling. The miscommunication in providing estimates based on time can be explained in an example. If a developer takes on a task and then estimates that to be one and a half days of work, in the case where the developers are working five day and forty-hour week. If work starts at lunchtime on a certain day then the manager could expect the work to be completed by the end of the next day. The problematic assumption here is that the developer day is eight hours long.

When we start to factor in something as obvious as the amount and duration of meetings, we can begin to see how available development time is consumed. It does not take much consideration to interpret the impact this has on the concept of developer (ideal) days. For situations and products where the conditions for using ideal time can be satisfied, then go with that if you choose to. I would propose though, that is not the case for the majority of products, projects and situations. This idea of finding an alternative to estimates of time was widely adopted into agile software development approaches worldwide which speaks to some appreciable recognition of the need, even while given the difficulty with accepting change.

Estimation Using Story Points

The challenge when starting to use story points is that a story point is not a standardised unit of measurement. So, if we cannot define a story point precisely then how do we define multiples thereof?

One of the benefits of using story points is to enable us to dissociate estimations from time. The irony is that when beginning to use story points, association with periods of time can help some team members to start to “visualise” what story point values mean. That will change with experience of estimation, but you have to start somewhere.

The key point from my perspective in coaching story points is to recognise that they represent size or volume. The volume is another way of describing capacity. When we estimate a story point value, we need to consider three aspects of the work we are estimating:

  • The effort required to complete the work
  • The complexity of the work
  • The remaining uncertainty of the work that we are trying to estimate.

Uncertainty can encapsulate dependencies on other work, unfamiliarity with code bases or missing detail in the story. The definition of ready should be used as an aid to determine how well we can determine our knowledge of the three factors mentioned above.

What we are seeing here — in terms of estimating effort, complexity and uncertainty — is a measurement or estimation using three coordinates. We are already familiar with a three coordinate (three plane Cartesian) method for calculating size. Remember that story points are about size.

We can use length, height (depth), and width to calculate or estimate the capacity/volume of a container. We can think of a sprint as a container within which we put stories of different sizes.

Think of sprints/iterations as containers.

When we are estimating story size though, our three coordinates are effort, complexity and uncertainty. We will not have precise sizing for each of these but we do have a way to improve how we judge those. A key point to note here is that, just the same as container sizes, the relative values of effort, complexity and uncertainty can vary, yet have the story can have the same, or very similar, size.

Stories with different values for effort, complexity and uncertainty can have the same size.

The hardest aspect of using story points is getting started in the first place. This is because the standards organisation for a story point is the team itself. The process of switching from time estimations to using a nebulous, undefined unit requires a Copernican shift in mindset. The experience gained in initial sprints using story points is well worth the discomfort that many can feel. What we achieve during those initial few sprints is to gain experience of the stories, including our relative accuracy in sizing them. This needs to be reflected upon in retrospective meetings to confirm team confidence in the estimations they have made. Lessons learned about how estimates could have been improved are also valuable.

The secondary benefit of those early sprints is that the total points completed in each sprint, enable us to start to calculate an average velocity for the team. We are now getting a view of the capacity for our sprints. I did mention that we should aim to dissociate story points from time although I should confess that I have conceded to allowing teams to draw some parallel to time in the initial stages because it helped their understanding at that stage.

Was I making a rod for my own back? Sure, but let’s try something and learn from it. We can coach and guide our teams but what we want to achieve is understanding, not compliance.

When the team can understand the idea of a sprint as a container and that stories that we estimate are smaller boxes that fill that container during planning, the idea of estimating without association to time starts to make sense.

Story Point Defined

With the experience of having worked on stories over a few sprints, we can look at them and decide, “Which are the smallest stories here that are worthy of an estimate?” Some work is so trivial in size that more effort could be expending in estimating it than doing the work. The smallest story point value we have is half a point. Do the team consider that is a value that they can use? If so, then identify the SBIs (Sprint Backlog Items)that the team can agree would represent that story point size. The next value up is one story point — we do need to identify SBIs that represent this value (if we cannot, are we decomposing stories enough? That is a subject for another article). Which are the previous SBIs that the team can agree represent that size? Complete that process and we now have a team agreed standard for the story point.


How do we capture velocity? Well, simply speaking it is the sum of the story points completed during a sprint. Average velocity? The sum of the story points completed per sprint over a number of sprints. No surprises there! There is a potential issue in teams where the velocity is captured using Jira, or perhaps how Jira is set up.

Jira captures the story points for SBIs that are “done”. It does not capture partially done work, therefore it would benefit the teams to not over-reach in their commitment in early sprints. More work can be pulled in if capacity remains. SBIs with no estimate, obviously, contribute nothing to the recorded velocity. Also, Jira only captures story points that are assigned to SBIs which opens the debate about which SBIs should have story points assigned.

Let’s bear in mind that we are using story points to identify capacity for planning purposes. That capacity is analogous to velocity. I would suggest a guiding principle that if a stand-alone SBI occupies development capacity in a sprint then it should be estimated. Tasks below a story, or even spikes if they are below a story will be included in the story estimate. If they are independent of the story then estimate them. This helps near-future planning as well, for some number of sprints ahead. We should bear in mind that average velocity often varies over time.

This use of determining capacity and velocity can become complicated where management only want certain pieces of work estimated. Limiting what is estimated does not demonstrate an understanding of the main use of story point estimates. This should promote a discussion to see how the motivation of management outside of the team can be satisfied or met, without disrupting the work of the team unproductively.

I am a firm believer that we should not adjust estimates during the sprint. If we find that an SBI was significantly under-estimated then the team should — having estimated the extra capacity that the work will involve — meet with the Product Owner to determine if the sprint goal can still be met or if a reorganisation and prioritisation of work is required. The sprint retrospective is an ideal opportunity to reflect upon previous estimates to agree on our accuracy or otherwise. Did we miss something that we can use going forwards, to improve our estimates?

Photo by You X Ventures on Unsplash

Relative Estimation

Story points start to shine when we are able to size new stories relatively. I am sure everyone has seen the example of comparing animal sizes by way of explanation.

I discussed earlier in this piece how we can identify stories (or other SBIs) that we have completed previously, to define half a story point or one story point. The efficacy in relative estimation overall can be increased by first identifying the typical range of story point sizes that the team tend to have in their sprints, with their current practice of story composition and refinement.

For ease of explanation, let us assume that we are dealing with a team that rarely have stories of greater than 13 story points in sprint. That would be expected to cover most teams and products. To both reduce the burden of identifying previously completed stories (of a size that the team agrees on) and also to simplify the process of relative estimation, we can use benchmark sizes. This involves using every-other story point size for relative estimation.

We should identify a number of example stories for what the team agree are representative for story point sizes, remembering that “boxes” with differing dimensions can have the same capacity. Let us use an example where the team agree that sizes 2, 5, and 13 would work for them. We identify example stories for those sizes as a team.

I would actually suggest starting with one size — the most common — then include the other sizes once the team are happy with their examples for the first size.

Once the team have examples for their benchmark sizes they can perform relative estimations in this way….

Showing initial benchmark sizes for this example

Since a five is more than twice the size of a two and a 13 is more than twice the size of a five, then initial comparison (closest to a 2, 5 or 13) should be easily made.

Which story point size is the new story closest to?

For this illustration, let’s say that it is closest to five story points.

Final comparison to assign a story point size.

Et voila! Is the new story a good comparison the the five point story examples, bigger or smaller? You now have your story point size.


OK, cards on the table (appropriate, don’t you agree?). Relative estimation is not a “one size fits all” approach, it is another tool in your team estimation toolbox. To perform relative estimation, the team still need a good understanding of a story and planning poker is a great way to have that discussion. There will be some stories that the team assess are best estimated using planning poker, others they will be able to decide can be more readily estimated relatively.

For my teams working with relative estimation, the important take away is that they do not feel the need to satisfy requests for “time to complete”. The work is committed for this sprint (or PDP if you work with SAFe) and will be delivered in that iteration.

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